Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

The most significant fact about silver, from a charting point of view, is the mega cup pattern formed over a period of more than 30 years.These cup (or cup and handle) patterns are very bullish formations.

As massive supply-deficits and vanishing inventories lead to greater and greater stress in our totally corrupted precious metals markets; these dynamics push us toward one of two potential ‘implosion’ events.

We’ve seen lots of talk of massive and historic volatility in the gold market after its recent take down.  This is not true.  Here is a chart showing every day since 1969 where gold moved (+/-) 5%.  Since the early 1980s, the price

Gold's post-plunge rally of the past 9 trading days has been quite impressive, given what preceded it, but it has not vitiated the implications of the support failure and plunge, and it won’t until either a substantial base pattern



Dow “Sell In May” Chart

All in all we didn’t do much this past week.  Things were pretty quiet after two amazing weeks in a row.  We’re setting up for another move here shortly and markets are looking toppy here.


Many years ago when I was a teenager, my late father had a friend who was in his sixties. His name was Johnny and he was overweight.

One of investors’ biggest fears over the Fed’s monetary stimulus (QE3) is that it will cause runaway inflation.  While there are reasons for believing this fear could come to pass in the years following the upcoming 120-year cycle

I was honored to be in St. Paul’s Cathedral attending Margaret Thatcher’s funeral last week.

Many economists believe the price of gold has fallen because institutional investors have become more interested in owning the general stock market.

 

The last three major bull markets of the Dow were followed by some type of economic crisis and a major bull market in gold.


So we saw gold fall a hundred plus dollars in a day and I say, it’s fine.

There's a lot of confusion about money and about what does and does not form part of the money supply. Our goal in this short discussion is to reduce the confusion.

Gold prices have managed to recover more than $ 80 an ounce from its recent low as demand for the physical metal explodes.

UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE

For People Who Think

The cyclical recovery that began in March 2009 has been impressive but is getting long in the tooth.  Investors wonder when it will end, and while this can’t be known with precision there are signs that its terminus isn’t far away.

In the years following the global financial crisis, economists and investors have gotten very comfortable with very high, and seemingly persistent, government debt.

Here are the historical bull and bear markets for Gold since 1972 (post Bretton Woods) through 2007.



US Dollar Lost Soul Chart

Here are the historical bull and bear markets for Gold since 1972 (post Bretton Woods) through 2007.

Have a good look at the following two charts.

On Friday we witnessed a great plunge in gold (almost $80 – from $1560.30 to $1480.50) and silver (almost $1.7 – from $27.58 to $25.89) and we are seeing even lower prices this week.

That was the question I asked myself after being 100% cash into the last hour yesterday and seeing the bottom fall out on the gold stocks once again.


There are likely, at minimum, half a dozen reasons for the swift correction in precious metals over the past week. The real reason might be one, two, or even all of what I’m going to lay out below.

I have never appealed to the so-called conspiracy theories in trying to explain the strange world of fluctuations in the price of monetary metals.

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It is estimated that the total amount of gold mined up to the end of 2011 is approximately 166,000 tonnes.

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