Gold Editorials & Commentary

What a week!

I have been inundated with Elliott Wave configurations on the gold shares, most of which maintain that there is still one more major downside move still to come. I am not going to analyse them as I do not have the time.

There has been a lot of attention paid by some sectors of the investment community regarding the "time bomb" represented by the open derivatives position, and the size of the JP Morgan derivatives book in particular.

Rabelais' 16th century satire, Gargantua and Pantagruel, was a comic tale of a very affable giant prince that traveled the world fighting wars, settling disputes, and helping friends.

While the IPO market for high tech start ups is all but shut down and will probably remain so for a while yet- rest assured- it will return one day.

To justify my existence on this planet - and to earn a living in the process - I am an advisor to family run businesses that have the will to "corporatise", and the potential and ambition to internationalise.

FT Gold Index

SUMMARY

Ahh, reality is stingy, and forces us to make choices. If you stop at McDonald's for lunch you can't eat at Burger King at the same time.

"Ride the winners and cut the losses". So goes the old adage.

As a serious investor in silver and gold shares I did a little exercise this morning that I thought was sufficiently interesting to share here.

"When the capital development of a country becomes the by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to become ill done."(John Maynard Keynes)

Iraq news has dominated the gold market since late last year, and may continue to do so for several more months. It is quite possible that the related hype and fear explains much of the acceleration of the gold price and the increase in its volatility.

On February 19, 2003, the U.S. Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued an advance notice of proposed rule making offering for comment proposed new regulations to implement the USA PATRIOT Act amendments to the Bank Secrecy Act (the "BSA").

It seems as if every president proposes a "tax relief plan," which plan is used to gain election, or at least make a wonderful campaign promise. Taxes are levied on virtually everything besides income.

Looking past the Iraqi "caper" - which I have now convinced myself is likely to be relatively short lived, if it manifests at all - what can we expect from the markets?

Ah the Lone Ranger! "Return with us now, to those thrilling days of yesteryear. From out of the west, come the thundering hoof beats of the great horse Silver, the Lone Ranger rides again!" Being of advanced age, I grew up on the Lone Ranger.

To understand what is happening in the gold and silver markets, it is necessary to understand the rules by which the game is being played.

There appear to be four "teams" of players, as follows:

There is a lot of talk about deflation nowadays, but very few people do understand the real meaning of its definition. One reason might be the fact, that there are several types of deflation and subsequently a clear understanding by the public is lacking.

Given the interest being shown in these two owing to the threat of war and the prospect (some mistakenly believe) of inflation, I'm going to show you what's happening for as long as there is an interest.

The purpose of this article is to provide the investor with a non-biased analytical look at the stock market. I can assure you that my analysis is based on sound technical principles, not the hope and hype that Wall Street is trying to feed the public.

This article and the imbedded links are a "must read" for those in the U.S.

I have recently written how the price of gold could easily skyrocket towards infinity dollars per ounce as a result of a total dollar currency collapse, and how the gold price might stabilize at $32,567/oz. if the U.S.

Under the rules of Elliott Wave analysis, a bullish trend is determined by the fact that the price being charted forms 5 waves in an upward direction.

Not long ago, Gold Fields Mineral Services, Ltd. published its Gold Survey 2002--Update 2. The report began with the following:

We were asked the question, " What makes the gold price rise?", and the answers are not difficult to detail, but we realised that we were being asked the wrong question. The wrong question because a list of factors would be like a pile of bricks.

Even knowing that it actually happened, it still is almost unthinkable that the United States government would nationalize the personal assets of its citizens, give paper in exchange at 60% of the value of the assets - and book a profit.

For several years I have been harping about the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$). Why? Because valuing stocks in terms of gold gives us a superbly reliable indicator of the trends in both stocks and gold.