In his magnificent May 2001 issue of "The Long Wave Analyst", Ian Gordon quoted John Kenneth Galbraith and Richard Russell that sets the stage for the news of a rapidly deteriorating global economy now in progress.
Bear's Lair
Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.
One year ago we reported that the "War and Peace" cycle was forecasting war sometime in the 2002-2004 timeframe.
Key supports were breached Thursday (June 14) in several vehicles tracked by Black Box Forecasts, suggesting that sellers have not yet spent their energy for the near-term.
I just completed a telephone survey of all the registered, approved, financial planners in my town. They have various degrees, diplomas, and certificates of achievement, which certifies them as experts in economics.
Is the economy in new trouble? Or is today's sobering market behavior just a cross between a failed intraweek rally during a Triple Witching Expiration, while the Fed's Tan (or Beige) Book Report was a lit
Exodus 17:3
But the people were very thirsty and continued to complain to Moses. They said, "Why did you bring us out of Egypt? To kill us and our children and our livestock with thirst?"
I would like to present a brief discussion quantifying the leverage available in the HUI.
Gold finished the week at $273.40, declining $5.70 since our last update two weeks ago. Following the mid-May price spike, bullion has consolidated, bouncing along the 45-day moving trend line.
The gold market posted a remarkable performance on Friday (June 8) and had many gold bulls licking their chops in anticipation of further gains in the near-term.
Introduction
Some centuries ago there was a very simple little piece of doggerel that was widely sung in England. It went like this:
Alan Greenspan was no stranger to the tales of the great manipulative cliques in the gold market of past years, or "gold pools" as they were often called.
After its upward surge of late last month, the gold market was in correction mode last week - but not for long.
Not that politics ultimately matters in the least, but the mid-cycle elections in 2002 could provide an entertaining test of entrenched political theory.
Did our forecast late-May/early-June 'fling' . . . come to an end Wednesday?
Never have so few, lied so much, to so many, for so long. Me thinks Mr. Magoo will have this engraved on his tombstone if he's lucky.
One of the more objective newsletter writers on Wall Street these days is the veteran Richard Russell who has lived almost long enough now to have lived as a young man through the entire Kondratieff winter of the last cycle.
Gold traders and investors who have wondered aloud in recent months how the yellow metal can possibly mount a sustained rally--an-look so good from a chart perspective-in the face of a rising U.S.
Following gold's $25 rise in less than five trading days a normal correction was abetted by rumor that Russia might sell gold to aid Siberian flood victims. A Thursday rally was turned into a decline that extended into Friday.
An emerging consensus . . . against an imminent economic or technology recovery is occurring, and is perceived to be the excuse for the market's increased volatility of late.
First, from John Brimelow:
Indian ex duty premiums: AM $4.68, PM $5.32, with world gold at $267.20 and $266. Above legal import point, although showing understandable signs of shock.
Andrew Harriman had just received his orders from his superiors at Goldman Sachs. He was instructed to keep the price of gold on the U.S. futures market below $500 an ounce at all costs.
On March 6th and 7th, there was a meeting of top Russian Politicians, Bankers, Economists held in Moscow. Sponsored by an agency of the Russian government, its focus was entirely on the U.S. economy.
Frank Veneroso recently put together for GATA a review of the current situation in leased gold and the current supply/demand picture for gold as he sees it:
GOLD-EAGLE.com is read by millions. It is our forum for gold, silver, and stock trends, theories, graphs, estimates, plus assorted opinions and predictions. Wonderful web site, and thanks to its suppliers.
A cottage industry has developed comparing modern America with ancient Rome and its decline. While I share some of the adherents views, I'm much too good of a historian to believe the past repeats itself exactly.
In ages past, the money markets of the world used to obey well-known classical rules. Whenever a country suffered substantial current-account deficits, for instance, its currency faced devaluation pressures.
Last week gold broke through two technical resistance prices, and today fell back, as might be expected, after piercing the $292 an ounce resistance point. Last week gold rose $19.60 an ounce to close at $287.40 an ounce.
Alan Greenspan nervously awaited the results of the day's work. And what a day it had been! His furrowed brow and haggard expression were manifest tokens of the exasperation he felt. The day was Monday, October, 19, 1987.
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The total world's holdings of gold could be transported by a single solitary oil tanker.
