Gold Editorials & Commentary

We live in dangerous times. But we also live in times where delusional behavior is raising the risks and intensifying the danger.

Last week the discussion of the valuation of gold mines ended with the possibility that the prices of marginal, unhedged mines with extensive reserves that can at present not be mined profitably could increase 10-fold and more, should the gold price really get

The Long-Term Dollar Bear

Despite the aggressive lowering of the federal funds rate target from 6.5% in December, 2000 to the current level of 1.25%, U.S. economic activity remains subdued.

We live in dangerous times. But we also live in times where delusional behavior is raising the risks and intensifying the danger.

In college, I wasn’t sure what I wanted to do when I grew up. I started out double majoring in political science and history. I thought I might want to be a lawyer. Then, in my sophomore year, I decided I wanted to teach.

Trying to fathom the market is much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together.

We live in dangerous times. But we also live in times where delusional behavior is raising the risks and intensifying the danger.

The "Euro vs Dollar" war is the most recent - and most defining - chapter in gold's 5,000 year history.

Since when, asks Kurt Richebächer,

do rising share prices constitute wealth creation?

As I gear up for my new year's comments, I will review some of my T Theory observations already detailed during January in other private publications, then look ahead to what T Theory sees in general for the primary goal of producing superior long term investme

The term "technical analysis" is a complicated sounding name for a very basic approach to investing. Simply put, technical analysis is the study of prices, with charts being the primary tool.

A "frame of reference" is essentially a prejudicial mind set which enables one to put data into perspective.

What a week!

I have been inundated with Elliott Wave configurations on the gold shares, most of which maintain that there is still one more major downside move still to come. I am not going to analyse them as I do not have the time.

There has been a lot of attention paid by some sectors of the investment community regarding the "time bomb" represented by the open derivatives position, and the size of the JP Morgan derivatives book in particular.

Rabelais' 16th century satire, Gargantua and Pantagruel, was a comic tale of a very affable giant prince that traveled the world fighting wars, settling disputes, and helping friends.

While the IPO market for high tech start ups is all but shut down and will probably remain so for a while yet- rest assured- it will return one day.

To justify my existence on this planet - and to earn a living in the process - I am an advisor to family run businesses that have the will to "corporatise", and the potential and ambition to internationalise.

FT Gold Index

SUMMARY

Ahh, reality is stingy, and forces us to make choices. If you stop at McDonald's for lunch you can't eat at Burger King at the same time.

"Ride the winners and cut the losses". So goes the old adage.

As a serious investor in silver and gold shares I did a little exercise this morning that I thought was sufficiently interesting to share here.

"When the capital development of a country becomes the by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to become ill done."(John Maynard Keynes)

Iraq news has dominated the gold market since late last year, and may continue to do so for several more months. It is quite possible that the related hype and fear explains much of the acceleration of the gold price and the increase in its volatility.

On February 19, 2003, the U.S. Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued an advance notice of proposed rule making offering for comment proposed new regulations to implement the USA PATRIOT Act amendments to the Bank Secrecy Act (the "BSA").

It seems as if every president proposes a "tax relief plan," which plan is used to gain election, or at least make a wonderful campaign promise. Taxes are levied on virtually everything besides income.

Looking past the Iraqi "caper" - which I have now convinced myself is likely to be relatively short lived, if it manifests at all - what can we expect from the markets?